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Time More Important Than Timing    (Updated 7/10/08)

For someone who has lots of time ahead of them to invest, this article will show that TIME is more important than TIMING. In July 2000, the Los Angeles Times published an article in their business section titled Perfect Timing Less Vital Than Plain Time For Young Investors.

The article reports the fate of four hypothetical investors, each of whom invest $2000 in the S&P 500 index each year from 1980 through 1999:

  • The first investor has perfect timing, puts his annual savings in at the lowest point of each year, and winds up with $387,120 at the end of that 20 year period.

  • The second investor puts his savings in at the start of each year winds up with $362,185 -- only about 6% less than the perfect timer.

  • The third investor divides his $2000 in 12 equal chunks, dollar-cost-averages into the market every month, and winds up with $352,450.

  • The last investor has the worst luck by putting his $2000 in at the peak in each year. Yet, this investor winds up with $321,569, or just 17% less than the perfect timer.

The article summarizes their findings:

“Similar results were found on a rolling 20-year basis going back to 1926. It just goes to show you that time really is on your side – even if you’re not the best investor.”